Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 495 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 495 BNA 06:30 → BWI 09:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 499 BNA 17:55 → BWI 20:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 495 Southwest	BNA 06:30	BWI 09:25	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 942 Southwest	BNA 09:10	BWI 12:05	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 497 Southwest	BNA 13:15	BWI 16:10	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1031 American	BNA 10:25	BWI 13:29	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 3809 United	BNA 13:32	BWI 16:13	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 377 Southwest	BNA 15:10	BWI 18:05	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 499 Southwest	BNA 17:55	BWI 20:50	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON