Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2940 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2940 BNA 06:38 → CLT 09:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 159 BNA 16:20 → CLT 18:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2940 American	BNA 06:38	CLT 09:08	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 966 American Flight history →	BNA 08:30	CLT 10:58	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
WN 4967 Southwest	BNA 10:45	CLT 13:09	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3328 American Flight history →	BNA 11:53	CLT 14:17	17%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 18:28	CLT 20:57	25%	7%	0.9%	59%
AA 1108 American	BNA 13:33	CLT 15:55	27%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1136 American	BNA 15:49	CLT 18:14	28%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 159 Southwest	BNA 16:20	CLT 18:44	29%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON