tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 406 Southwest BNA 12:10 CVG 14:30 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 4830 Southwest BNA 18:00 CVG 20:20 16% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 6h 11m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149 6h 28m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 5h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858 5h 25m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248 6h 08m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 3h 18m Chicago ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet 6h 50m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:48 → IAH 11:18UA 4746 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:39 → CVG 16:15UA 2850 6h 27m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 3h 34m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CVG 13:35DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor 6h 30m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 14:20 → CVG 16:51DL 5012 · flown by Endeavor 5h 51m 69% 50%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:28 → ORD 20:19UA 1127 1h 04m Chicago ORD 21:23 → CVG 23:36UA 1223 4h 08m 73% 49%
DeltaDetails → BNA 13:53 → JFK 17:39DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 18:29 → CVG 21:05DL 5023 · flown by Endeavor 6h 12m 64% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON