Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 536 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 536 BNA 06:45 → DCA 09:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3821 BNA 16:50 → DCA 19:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 536 Southwest	BNA 06:45	DCA 09:39	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 5835 Republic	BNA 08:00	DCA 11:14	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 14:25	DCA 17:34	9%	3%	1.0%	73%
WN 322 Southwest	BNA 11:10	DCA 14:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:00	DCA 13:09	11%	4%	1.7%	60%
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 13:03	DCA 16:01	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 18:57	DCA 21:37	16%	4%	1.9%	no record
WN 537 Southwest	BNA 13:50	DCA 16:39	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3821 Southwest	BNA 16:50	DCA 19:44	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON