Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 541 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 541 BNA 06:02 → DEN 07:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1535 BNA 16:50 → DEN 18:53 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 541 Southwest	BNA 06:02	DEN 07:51	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest	BNA 07:52	DEN 09:39	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 08:12	DEN 10:17	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 658 Southwest	BNA 12:25	DEN 14:28	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 424 Southwest	BNA 20:10	DEN 22:13	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:12	DEN 17:11	22%	5%	0.9%	77%
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 15:57	DEN 18:04	27%	5%	0.6%	80%
WN 1535 Southwest	BNA 16:50	DEN 18:53	32%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON