Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2787 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2787 BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1109 BNA 18:12 → DFW 20:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	8%	3%	1.3%	87%
AA 849 American	BNA 06:03	DFW 08:25	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:19	10%	4%	1.3%	83%
AA 2510 American	BNA 09:02	DFW 11:07	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:45	DFW 14:52	17%	7%	1.3%	79%
AA 1181 American	BNA 16:55	DFW 19:10	26%	9%	3.6%	no record
AA 1084 American	BNA 15:39	DFW 17:47	27%	10%	2.7%	no record
AA 1109 American	BNA 18:12	DFW 20:30	30%	17%	15.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON