Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2439 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2439 BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4968 BNA 18:38 → DTW 21:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2439 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DTW 08:46	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 3974 Southwest	BNA 10:40	DTW 13:22	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:15	DTW 12:55	11%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 13:56	DTW 16:39	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	17%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 4968 Southwest	BNA 18:38	DTW 21:17	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON