Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 999 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 999 BNA 05:35 → FLL 08:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2582 BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 999 Southwest	BNA 05:35	FLL 08:55	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3986 Southwest	BNA 11:30	FLL 14:55	14%	5%	1.5%	no record
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	24%	8%	4.3%	95%worse than usual
WN 3940 Southwest	BNA 15:50	FLL 19:15	24%	7%	1.2%	no record
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	34%	14%	4.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON