Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 281 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 281 BNA 06:12 → IAH 08:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2339 BNA 15:05 → IAH 17:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 281 United	BNA 06:12	IAH 08:34	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3938 United	BNA 09:55	IAH 12:18	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4746 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 08:48	IAH 11:18	8%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 241 United Flight history →	BNA 11:21	IAH 13:44	12%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2339 United Flight history →	BNA 15:05	IAH 17:28	19%	6%	0.7%	72%
UA 4005 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 08:40	IAH 11:02	31%	8%	0.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON