tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 571 Southwest BNA 11:25 IND 13:44 9% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 4513 Southwest BNA 17:50 IND 20:09 18% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:59 → IND 10:31DL 2952 4h 21m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:27 → IAD 11:24UA 1709 1h 11m Dulles IAD 12:35 → IND 14:34UA 3543 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → IND 22:37DL 674 5h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979 6h 33m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 1h 06m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA 5h 40m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 4h 31m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 47m Minneapolis MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456 4h 38m 89% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 53m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 5h 45m 64% 56%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:47 → MIA 20:10AA 487 49m Miami MIA 20:59 → IND 23:50AA 2518 6h 03m 51% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON