Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 579 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 579 BNA 05:35 → LAS 07:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 581 BNA 15:25 → LAS 17:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 579 Southwest	BNA 05:35	LAS 07:44	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 909 Southwest	BNA 08:00	LAS 09:57	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 580 Southwest	BNA 12:23	LAS 14:15	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 585 Southwest	BNA 20:05	LAS 22:19	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2250 Southwest	BNA 18:40	LAS 20:54	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	BNA 15:25	LAS 17:44	29%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON