Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 891 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 891 BNA 06:30 → LAX 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 526 BNA 20:10 → LAX 22:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 891 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:30	LAX 08:45	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3536 Southwest	BNA 07:55	LAX 10:32	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 149 Southwest	BNA 00:10	LAX 02:16	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 355 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:51	LAX 17:02	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 526 Southwest	BNA 20:10	LAX 22:47	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON