Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4324 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4324 BNA 05:35 → LGA 08:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4592 BNA 17:50 → LGA 21:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4324 Southwest	BNA 05:35	LGA 08:49	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 1506 Delta	BNA 07:59	LGA 11:18	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3314 American	BNA 06:17	LGA 09:35	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	BNA 10:32	LGA 14:08	15%	6%	1.9%	no record
WN 4734 Southwest	BNA 10:10	LGA 13:33	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
YX 5795 Republic	BNA 14:08	LGA 17:39	20%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:28	LGA 21:04	20%	7%	1.9%	67%
WN 4592 Southwest	BNA 17:50	LGA 21:13	26%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON