tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 682 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 682 Southwest BNA 07:55 LIT 09:26 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 603 Southwest BNA 20:05 LIT 21:25 18% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:48 → LIT 10:28DL 3040 5h 18m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025 6h 18m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:19AA 2583 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → LIT 13:08AA 3898 · flown by Envoy 6h 04m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → LIT 15:49DL 3027 6h 01m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → LIT 19:44DL 2701 4h 53m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:05 → IAH 17:28UA 2339 2h 42m Houston IAH 20:10 → LIT 21:47UA 4296 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 42m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:45 → DFW 14:52AA 1396 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:49 → LIT 17:10AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 4h 25m 82% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON