Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 615 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 615 BNA 05:06 → MCO 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4584 BNA 16:15 → MCO 19:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 615 Southwest	BNA 05:06	MCO 08:02	4%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 469 Southwest	BNA 06:35	MCO 09:36	5%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 2375 Southwest	BNA 08:55	MCO 11:56	8%	3%	4.8%	no record
WN 621 Southwest	BNA 10:45	MCO 13:46	11%	3%	4.6%	no record
WN 3361 Southwest	BNA 11:45	MCO 14:46	14%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 456 Southwest	BNA 12:45	MCO 15:46	15%	4%	1.5%	no record
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 09:59	MCO 13:06	15%	7%	15.7%	91%
WN 1264 Southwest	BNA 20:00	MCO 23:01	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 376 Southwest	BNA 18:07	MCO 21:10	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3343 Southwest	BNA 14:45	MCO 17:46	21%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 626 Southwest	BNA 13:50	MCO 16:46	21%	5%	1.8%	no record
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:10	MCO 20:24	21%	10%	2.1%	70%
WN 4584 Southwest	BNA 16:15	MCO 19:16	21%	5%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON