Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4490 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4490 BNA 06:27 → MIA 09:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 652 BNA 15:45 → MIA 19:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4490 Southwest	BNA 06:27	MIA 09:44	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:38	MIA 09:01	10%	2%	1.0%	92%
MQ 4123 Envoy	BNA 10:21	MIA 13:44	23%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 323 American Flight history →	BNA 18:37	MIA 21:59	29%	9%	1.0%	59%
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 16:47	MIA 20:10	30%	9%	1.1%	90%worse than usual
WN 652 Southwest	BNA 15:45	MIA 19:09	30%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON