Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4934 BNA 00:01 → MSP 02:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3175 BNA 20:00 → MSP 22:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4934 Southwest	BNA 00:01	MSP 02:16	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2221 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:00	MSP 08:10	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4758 Southwest	BNA 08:05	MSP 10:15	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	11%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 3175 Southwest	BNA 20:00	MSP 22:20	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON