Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 659 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 659 BNA 07:50 → MSY 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 662 BNA 18:00 → MSY 19:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 659 Southwest	BNA 07:50	MSY 09:35	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 660 Southwest	BNA 12:10	MSY 13:55	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 661 Southwest	BNA 15:05	MSY 16:50	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 662 Southwest	BNA 18:00	MSY 19:45	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON