Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 277 Southwest	BNA 10:00	MYR 12:41	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1530 Southwest	BNA 15:45	MYR 18:21	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047	4h 39m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	4h 26m	98%	82%
American Details →	BNA 10:25 → PHL 13:42AA 2605	2h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	98%	76%
American Details →	BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809	1h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	5h 34m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074	5h 58m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:10 → BOS 10:48DL 2509	47m Boston	BOS 11:35 → MYR 13:53DL 3087	5h 43m	87%	71%
American Details →	BNA 11:53 → CLT 14:17AA 3328	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 17:52 → MYR 18:56AA 1417	6h 03m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON