tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4093 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4093 Southwest BNA 07:50 OMA 09:56 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4140 Southwest BNA 20:10 OMA 22:16 18% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:45 → OMA 13:11DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → OMA 10:43DL 1125 5h 33m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:44 → OMA 15:08DL 2364 5h 20m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 13:56 → DTW 16:39DL 1557 3h 06m Detroit DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 3h 33m Denver DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327 8h 12m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:16 → ORD 07:11AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 08:18 → OMA 10:01AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 4h 45m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707 6h 04m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:40 → LGA 16:16DL 5438 · flown by Endeavor 59m New York LGA 17:15 → OMA 19:48DL 5127 · flown by Endeavor 7h 08m 73% 54%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 51m Houston IAH 11:53 → OMA 14:15UA 1936 5h 35m 62% 53%
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:28 → ORD 20:19UA 1127 52m Chicago ORD 21:11 → OMA 22:42UA 2336 4h 14m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON