tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:12, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3784 Southwest BNA 12:15 ONT 14:40 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 6h 47m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:36DL 2205 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 7h 23m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 28m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 1h 08m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 6h 35m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:05 → IAH 17:28UA 2339 3h 03m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 50m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:19AA 2583 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 8h 30m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 7h 52m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 7h 55m 97% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON