Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 529 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 529 BNA 05:57 → ORD 07:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2126 BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:42 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 529 United	BNA 05:57	ORD 07:52	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 05:16	ORD 07:11	7%	4%	1.1%	71%
UA 691 United	BNA 09:33	ORD 11:27	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2465 United Flight history →	BNA 07:40	ORD 09:41	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1105 American	BNA 07:01	ORD 08:55	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 398 United	BNA 10:20	ORD 12:18	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2500 American Flight history →	BNA 09:09	ORD 10:56	16%	5%	0.7%	54%
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 10:41	ORD 12:30	21%	7%	1.1%	56%
MQ 3679 Envoy	BNA 19:56	ORD 21:48	22%	5%	2.4%	no record
UA 1616 United Flight history →	BNA 12:49	ORD 14:50	22%	7%	0.8%	81%
YX 3424 Republic	BNA 15:01	ORD 16:58	25%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 2112 American	BNA 16:01	ORD 17:55	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	31%	7%	1.0%	57%
UA 1127 United Flight history →	BNA 18:28	ORD 20:19	31%	6%	0.9%	48%
AA 2126 American	BNA 17:41	ORD 19:42	32%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON