Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1651 at 13:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1651 Southwest	BNA 13:30	ORF 16:31	14%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	6h 48m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	4h 52m	96%	85%
American Details →	BNA 14:25 → DCA 17:34AA 4374 · flown by Republic	2h 41m Washington	DCA 20:15 → ORF 21:20AA 5662 · flown by PSA	5h 55m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	5h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	BNA 10:00 → DCA 13:09AA 5085 · flown by PSA	1h 55m Washington	DCA 15:04 → ORF 16:23AA 5601 · flown by PSA	5h 23m	94%	82%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807	6h 44m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:59 → JFK 13:42DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor	1h 41m New York	JFK 15:23 → ORF 17:06DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	6h 07m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	6h 01m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 16:47 → MIA 20:10AA 487	1h 04m Miami	MIA 21:14 → ORF 23:37AA 775	5h 50m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON