tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 522 Alaska BNA 17:16 PDX 19:55 23% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 8h 21m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 32m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:36DL 2205 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 7h 38m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503 9h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255 9h 03m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:30 → LAX 08:45DL 891 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 7h 50m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 35m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 03m Chicago ORD 20:03 → PDX 22:30UA 2243 7h 31m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON