Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2809 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4879 BNA 13:37 → PHL 16:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2605 American Flight history →	BNA 10:25	PHL 13:42	14%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 868 American Flight history →	BNA 16:21	PHL 19:43	21%	6%	0.8%	62%
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:36	PHL 16:53	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 419 Southwest	BNA 17:55	PHL 21:03	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4879 Southwest	BNA 13:37	PHL 16:37	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON