Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3347 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3347 BNA 05:17 → PHX 07:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4154 BNA 20:14 → PHX 22:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3347 Southwest	BNA 05:17	PHX 07:03	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 939 Southwest	BNA 08:02	PHX 09:48	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	BNA 12:15	PHX 14:13	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 14:23	PHX 16:17	18%	5%	0.7%	81%
WN 680 Southwest	BNA 17:20	PHX 19:18	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4154 Southwest	BNA 20:14	PHX 22:03	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON