Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3817 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3817 Southwest	BNA 10:00	PVD 13:35	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3984 Southwest	BNA 17:55	PVD 21:30	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:01 → PVD 13:45DL 1771	6h 45m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → PVD 12:34DL 2147	5h 16m	99%	89%
American Details →	BNA 14:25 → DCA 17:34AA 4374 · flown by Republic	2h 56m Washington	DCA 20:30 → PVD 22:13AA 5438 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 10:26 → PVD 12:32DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	5h 41m	98%	85%
American Details →	BNA 08:30 → CLT 10:58AA 966	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → PVD 15:59AA 2679	6h 29m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46DL 2064	6h 55m	96%	75%
American Details →	BNA 16:21 → PHL 19:43AA 868	58m Philadelphia	PHL 20:41 → PVD 22:05AA 3142	4h 44m	78%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON