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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 894 at 11:10, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 894 Southwest BNA 11:10 PWM 15:01 10% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 14m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 4h 50m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PWM 12:50DL 2479 5h 32m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 09:09 → ORD 10:56AA 2500 2h 22m Chicago ORD 13:18 → PWM 17:04AA 4741 · flown by Republic 6h 55m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:15 → DTW 12:55DL 2682 1h 10m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 4h 46m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 18:25 → PWM 21:05DL 2138 7h 27m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:30 → CLT 10:58AA 966 2h 59m Charlotte CLT 13:57 → PWM 16:24AA 1747 6h 54m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BNA 14:25 → DCA 17:34AA 4374 · flown by Republic 2h 29m Washington DCA 20:03 → PWM 21:55AA 2978 6h 30m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 1h 19m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 5h 51m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor 5h 25m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON