Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4740 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4740 BNA 10:00 → RDU 12:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 696 BNA 17:50 → RDU 20:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4740 Southwest	BNA 10:00	RDU 12:46	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4649 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 12:00	RDU 14:50	11%	3%	0.9%	91%
YX 4368 Republic	BNA 16:49	RDU 19:44	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 4168 Southwest	BNA 15:25	RDU 18:11	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 696 Southwest	BNA 17:50	RDU 20:31	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 09:35	RDU 12:20	18%	9%	1.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON