tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4101 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4101 Southwest BNA 10:04 RIC 12:43 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 698 Southwest BNA 16:05 RIC 18:49 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19DL 2650 5h 09m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152 4h 32m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214 5h 36m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:15 → DTW 12:55DL 2682 1h 41m Detroit DTW 14:36 → RIC 16:21DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:59 → JFK 13:42DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m New York JFK 14:43 → RIC 16:32DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor 5h 33m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → RIC 19:35DL 1348 5h 57m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:16 → ORD 07:11AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Chicago ORD 08:56 → RIC 12:05AA 2737 5h 49m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → RIC 14:31AA 1915 7h 30m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:28 → CLT 20:57AA 519 53m Charlotte CLT 21:50 → RIC 23:04AA 993 3h 36m 68% 47%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:47 → MIA 20:10AA 487 59m Miami MIA 21:09 → RIC 23:37AA 983 5h 50m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON