Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 704 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 704 BNA 07:50 → SAN 10:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 706 BNA 15:10 → SAN 17:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 704 Southwest	BNA 07:50	SAN 10:25	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 9791 SkyWest	BNA 16:18	SAN 18:47	26%	7%	1.5%	no record
WN 709 Southwest	BNA 20:00	SAN 22:35	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 706 Southwest	BNA 15:10	SAN 17:45	28%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → LAX 17:02DL 355	1h 18m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 33m	90%	74%
United Details →	BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716	58m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 29m	88%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON