tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4115 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4115 Southwest BNA 07:45 SAT 10:25 4% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 713 Southwest BNA 20:54 SAT 23:21 16% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 3h 04m Detroit DTW 11:50 → SAT 13:59DL 2458 7h 54m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 20m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 8h 43m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 7h 13m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 4h 33m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:30 → LAX 08:45DL 891 1h 10m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 8h 23m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 7h 35m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 6h 17m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:08 → SAT 13:17UA 6202 · flown by Mesa 4h 37m 75% 56%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 5h 58m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON