tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 539 Southwest BNA 12:55 SDF 15:05 12% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 4077 Southwest BNA 17:55 SDF 20:05 20% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481 6h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 14:25 → DCA 17:34AA 4374 · flown by Republic 2h 04m Washington DCA 19:38 → SDF 21:35AA 4672 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 13:56 → DTW 16:39DL 1557 3h 06m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 6h 16m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195 4h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126 5h 21m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 5h 47m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831 5h 35m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842 6h 16m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:45 → DFW 14:52AA 1396 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:40 → SDF 18:58AA 2049 5h 13m 75% 46%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:47 → MIA 20:10AA 487 55m Miami MIA 21:05 → SDF 23:42AA 647 5h 55m 67% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON