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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 626 BNA 08:02 → SFO 10:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 581 BNA 14:56 → SFO 17:56 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 626 United Flight history → BNA 08:02 SFO 10:59 16% 4% 0.6% 81%
WN 562 Southwest BNA 08:50 SFO 11:55 18% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 581 United BNA 14:56 SFO 17:56 23% 7% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 7h 15m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 1h 03m Denver DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 52m 90% 70%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902 6h 32m 88% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON