tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 725 Southwest BNA 12:25 SJC 15:26 14% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087 9h 31m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 20m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → LAX 17:02DL 355 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420 9h 14m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256 7h 05m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 8h 50m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:19AA 2583 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 8h 45m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046 7h 03m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 7h 44m 66% 47%
AlaskaDetails → BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281 50m Seattle SEA 10:54 → SJC 13:01AS 658 7h 59m 55% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON