Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 565 Southwest	BNA 08:14	SMF 10:59	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:36DL 2205	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	7h 10m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 41m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	7h 50m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	1h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574	7h 51m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → LAX 17:02DL 355	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 18:49 → SMF 20:23DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	98%	82%
United Details →	BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662	9h 05m	99%	80%
United Details →	BNA 15:05 → IAH 17:28UA 2339	3h 07m Houston	IAH 20:35 → SMF 22:43UA 1148	9h 38m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884	53m Chicago	ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828	7h 40m	59%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON