tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 732 Southwest BNA 11:45 SRQ 14:51 16% 4% 1.1% no record
WN 733 Southwest BNA 15:55 SRQ 19:01 25% 7% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 56m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 3h 42m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 4h 30m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 5h 49m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 6h 19m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 6h 36m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:47 → MIA 20:10AA 487 2h 44m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 12m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 1h 29m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 6h 32m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:37 → MIA 21:59AA 323 55m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 4h 22m 62% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON