Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 148 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 148 BNA 05:10 → TPA 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2212 BNA 18:00 → TPA 21:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 148 Southwest	BNA 05:10	TPA 07:59	3%	1%	4.6%	no record
WN 739 Southwest	BNA 08:50	TPA 11:50	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:15	TPA 12:10	13%	4%	2.6%	no record
WN 742 Southwest	BNA 13:15	TPA 16:15	20%	4%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:25	TPA 17:21	21%	6%	2.5%	no record
WN 2212 Southwest	BNA 18:00	TPA 21:00	21%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON