tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 745 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 745 Southwest BNA 08:50 TUL 10:41 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4265 Southwest BNA 20:05 TUL 21:56 20% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620 6h 54m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 6h 56m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:57 → DEN 18:04UA 1766 2h 51m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:16 → ORD 07:11AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Chicago ORD 08:26 → TUL 10:27AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 5h 11m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:30 → CLT 10:58AA 966 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → TUL 14:12AA 2657 5h 42m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 50m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → TUL 10:16DL 2754 3h 58m 89% 78%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:05 → IAH 17:28UA 2339 2h 46m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 6h 47m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BNA 11:53 → CLT 14:17AA 3328 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → TUL 19:37AA 2662 7h 44m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON