tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 747 Southwest BNA 10:00 TYS 12:10 11% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3991 Southwest BNA 15:50 TYS 18:00 18% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817 4h 39m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148 3h 58m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571 4h 59m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:27 → IAD 11:24UA 1709 1h 26m Dulles IAD 12:50 → TYS 14:27UA 6110 · flown by Mesa 5h 00m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:30 → CLT 10:58AA 966 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 6h 12m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 01m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:21 → IAH 13:44UA 241 1h 01m Houston IAH 14:45 → TYS 18:07UA 6211 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 88% 74%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:19AA 2583 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544 6h 33m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 46m Denver DEN 11:03 → TYS 15:59UA 1241 6h 47m 72% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON