tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3415 at 10:20, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3415 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BOI 10:20 BUR 11:40 14% 5% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:02 → SLC 12:23DL 1744 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 1h 08m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 4h 44m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOI 14:39 → SFO 15:47UA 4661 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → BUR 19:58UA 2001 6h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BOI 17:15 → SLC 18:29DL 2920 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 5h 33m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → BOI 14:40 → DEN 16:39UA 2173 2h 31m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 00m 93% 71%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 08:15 → SEA 08:50AS 2070 · flown by Horizon 2h 04m Seattle SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395 6h 13m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON