Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 5032 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 5032 BOI 06:13 → DEN 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2173 BOI 14:40 → DEN 16:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 5032 Southwest	BOI 06:13	DEN 08:04	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	5%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 1063 Southwest	BOI 08:16	DEN 10:18	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1854 Southwest	BOI 11:21	DEN 13:28	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1139 United	BOI 10:19	DEN 12:13	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4231 Southwest	BOI 14:21	DEN 16:23	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	23%	7%	0.6%	46%
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:40	DEN 16:39	24%	7%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON