Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3405 BOI 07:44 → GEG 08:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3208 BOI 13:16 → GEG 13:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3405 SkyWest	BOI 07:44	GEG 08:08	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:16	GEG 13:40	13%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 21:23	GEG 21:33	15%	5%	1.8%	85%
AS 2030 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 18:53	GEG 19:01	16%	4%	1.9%	84%
AS 2259 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 14:47	GEG 14:55	35%	10%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON