Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1409 at 13:26, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1409 Southwest	BOI 13:26	OAK 14:24	9%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 54m	99%	97%
Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:02 → SLC 12:23DL 1744	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOI 17:15 → SLC 18:29DL 2920	2h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:40 → OAK 21:38DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	5h 23m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON