tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3215 at 15:05, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3215 SkyWest BOI 15:05 ONT 16:11 16% 8% 0.8% no record
AS 2025 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BOI 14:31 ONT 15:38 18% 6% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOI 08:25 → SLC 09:44DL 3607 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 4h 57m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOI 17:15 → SLC 18:29DL 2920 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 6h 08m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:11 → PHX 09:46AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 5h 01m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOI 10:02 → SEA 10:50DL 3740 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 8h 19m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 11:42 → SEA 12:16AS 2159 · flown by Horizon 3h 08m Seattle SEA 15:24 → ONT 17:58AS 592 7h 16m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → BOI 06:21 → DFW 10:34AA 1107 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 8h 13m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → BOI 13:56 → PHX 15:11AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 5h 30m 97% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON