Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5386 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 5386 BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2353 BOI 15:20 → ORD 20:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5386 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:25	ORD 13:10	15%	7%	0.7%	85%
UA 642 United	BOI 12:17	ORD 16:31	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	BOI 15:20	ORD 20:10	29%	7%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON