Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 782 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day AS 782 BOI 06:00 → PDX 06:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3148 BOI 20:19 → PDX 20:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:00	PDX 06:26	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
AS 1314 Alaska	BOI 09:10	PDX 09:36	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 381 Alaska	BOI 13:30	PDX 13:55	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3148 SkyWest	BOI 20:19	PDX 20:53	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 2184 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 09:13	PDX 09:34	6%	6%	3.8%	94%
AS 2209 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:29	PDX 13:47	6%	2%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON