Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 762 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 762 BOI 05:09 → PHX 06:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4736 BOI 16:51 → PHX 18:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 762 Southwest	BOI 05:09	PHX 06:12	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3675 Envoy	BOI 06:34	PHX 07:47	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:11	PHX 09:46	10%	4%	0.6%	100%
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOI 13:56	PHX 15:11	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 4736 Southwest	BOI 16:51	PHX 18:08	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON