Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 118 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 118 BOI 06:57 → SEA 07:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 382 BOI 18:02 → SEA 18:31 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 118 SkyWest	BOI 06:57	SEA 07:36	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 364 Alaska	BOI 06:43	SEA 07:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:35	SEA 11:26	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
OO 3020 SkyWest	BOI 08:39	SEA 09:17	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 183 SkyWest	BOI 12:24	SEA 13:03	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3740 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:02	SEA 10:50	21%	6%	0.6%	85%
OO 3916 SkyWest	BOI 15:32	SEA 16:18	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 18:07	SEA 18:42	25%	8%	0.7%	83%
AS 320 Alaska	BOI 16:16	SEA 16:45	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 356 Alaska	BOI 14:04	SEA 14:35	29%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 382 Alaska	BOI 18:02	SEA 18:31	30%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 2070 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 08:15	SEA 08:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
AS 2159 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 11:42	SEA 12:16	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2352 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:47	SEA 21:21	40%	15%	2.0%	60%
AS 2166 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 10:00	SEA 10:34	56%	0%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON