tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 1647 at 11:13, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1647 Alaska BOI 11:13 SNA 12:19 19% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BOI 14:39 → SFO 15:47UA 4661 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 19:27 → SNA 21:12UA 589 7h 33m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:56UA 1320 7h 26m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 3h 43m Portland PDX 17:30 → SNA 19:56AS 574 7h 27m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOI 17:15 → SLC 18:29DL 2920 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 5h 45m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:11 → PHX 09:46AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Phoenix PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656 5h 28m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOI 08:20 → SFO 09:31UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441 6h 49m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 49m Salt Lake City SLC 08:00 → SNA 08:54DL 1198 3h 54m 91% 79%
UnitedDetails → BOI 14:40 → DEN 16:39UA 2173 2h 31m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 00m 93% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON